二维伊辛模型相变临界点温度的模拟计算

用计算模拟方法计算了二维伊辛模型的相变临界点温度,其结果接近严格解,明显布喇格－威廉斯近似和贝特近似的结果。     

Sensitivity of risk measures with respect to the normal approximation of total claim distributions

A simple and commonly used method to approximate the total claim distribution of a (possibly weakly dependent) insurance collective is the normal approximation. In this article, we investigate the error made when the normal approximation is plugged in a fairly general distribution-invariant risk measure. We focus on the rate of convergence of the error relative to the number of clients, we specify the relative error’s asymptotic distribution, and we illustrate our results by means of a numerical example. Regarding the risk measure, we take into account distortion risk measures as well as distribution-invariant coherent risk measures.     

汽车保险的精算模型及其应用

本文应用我国一家保险公司的实际数据 ,对各种可以反映保单持有人索赔次数的模型 (包括负二项模型、泊松 -逆高斯模型、二元风险模型、三元风险模型、二项 -贝塔模型和负二项 -帆塔模型 )分别进行了拟合 ,结果表明三元风险模型拟合效果最好 ,因此利用三元风险模型构造了对保单持有人根据后验风险的大小调整其续期保费的系统     

具有不同借贷利率的欧式未定权益定价模型

本文假定借款利率大于或等于无风险利率 ,并在股票的期望收益率、波动率和红利率都随时间变化情形下 ,建立较合理的金融市场模型。利用倒向随机微分方程及Feynman Kac公式 ,得到了欧式看涨和看跌期权买卖双方的价格公式以及套期保值策略 ,从而可看出借贷利率各自对期权价格的影响 .     

Copula models for insurance claim numbers with excess zeros and time-dependence

This paper develops two copula models for fitting the insurance claim numbers with excess zeros and time-dependence. The joint distribution of the claims in two successive periods is modeled by a copula with discrete or continuous marginal distributions. The first model fits two successive claims by a bivariate copula with discrete marginal distributions. In the second model, a copula is used to model the random effects of the conjoint numbers of successive claims with continuous marginal distributions. Zero-inflated phenomenon is taken into account in the above copula models. The maximum likelihood is applied to estimate the parameters of the discrete copula model. A two-step procedure is proposed to estimate the parameters in the second model, with the first step to estimate the marginals, followed by the second step to estimate the unobserved random effect variables and the copula parameter. Simulations are performed to assess the proposed models and methodologies.     

带有免赔额调整的车险奖惩系统及其最优自留额

考虑了带有免赔额调整的车险奖惩系统.利用无差别原理,将奖惩系统惩罚等级中增收保费的部分或全部用添加免赔额的方式替代,给出了替代后奖惩系统最优自留额的递推计算公式.最后,给出一个例子并分析了免赔额与平均最优自留额的关系.     

MDPs with setwise continuous transition probabilities

This paper describes the structure of optimal policies for infinite-state Markov Decision Processes with setwise continuous transition probabilities. The action sets may be noncompact. The objective criteria are either the expected total discounted and undiscounted costs or average costs per unit time. The analysis of optimality equations and inequalities is based on the optimal selection theorem for inf-compact functions introduced in this paper.     

Solvency II,regulatory capital,and optimal reinsurance: How good are Conditional Value-at-Risk and spectral risk measures?

We study the problem of optimal reinsurance as a means of risk management in the regulatory framework of Solvency II under Conditional Value-at-Risk and, as its natural extension, spectral risk measures. First, we show that stop-loss reinsurance is optimal under both Conditional Value-at-Risk and spectral risk measures. Spectral risk measures thus constitute a more general class of suitable regulatory risk measures than specific Conditional Value-at-Risk. At the same time, the established type of stop-loss reinsurance can be maintained as the optimal risk management strategy that minimizes regulatory capital. Second, we derive the optimal deductibles for stop-loss reinsurance. We show that under Conditional Value-at-Risk, the optimal deductible tends towards restrictive and counter-intuitive corner solutions or “plunging”, which is a serious objection against its use in regulatory risk management. By means of the broader class of spectral risk measures, we are able to overcome this shortcoming as optimal deductibles are now interior solutions. Especially, the recently discussed power spectral risk measures and the Wang risk measure are shown to avoid any plunging. They yield a one-to-one correspondence between the risk parameter and the optimal deductible and, thus, provide economically plausible risk management strategies.     

氧离子辐照二氧化钛单晶后的结构与磁性

氧离子辐照二氧化钛单晶可以诱发其铁磁性．辐照后在室温下也能观察到二氧化钛的铁磁性,且对温度依赖性较小．结合X射线衍射实验、卢瑟福背散射/沟道实验、拉曼散射实验谱、电子自旋共振实验谱、超导量子干涉仪实验、单位原子随沟道位移实验,测定了晶格的损伤随辐照流强的增加而增加．发现在氧离子辐照二氧化钛时出现了Ti³⁺替代氧空位(O_V)的缺陷复合体,即形成Ti³⁺-OV复合体．这种缺陷复合体导致了局部(TiO_6-x)的拉曼模式的伸展．说明了Ti³⁺结合一个未成对的3d电子是二氧化钛局部铁磁性的起源.